By Crown Weather Services
Wednesday Afternoon, March 9, 2022
I am forecasting yet another above average tropical storm and hurricane season. The reason for this is due to the potential for a third consecutive year with La Nina conditions, the forecast of above average ocean water temperatures and the possibility of widespread average to slightly lower than average wind shear conditions.
With that said, there is some uncertainty with exactly how active things may be. The reason why is because there aren’t too many cases in history that have a third consecutive year with La Nina conditions. Those that do (which include 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, 1985 and 2000) ended up overall with near average or below average activity.
16 Named Storms, 9 of those storms becoming Hurricanes and 3 of those hurricanes becoming Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index Forecast:
I am forecasting an ACE index this year of 135. This number basically says that I expect that overall activity in the Atlantic will be about 40 percent above the 1951 to 2020 average amount of activity.
Weak La Nina conditions currently exist across the Pacific and current ENSO guidance forecasts that we should “warm” to neutral ENSO conditions by early this summer. Much of the ENSO guidance then forecast that ENSO conditions will remain neutral throughout this summer into this autumn. This is extremely similar to what occurred during the 2021 Hurricane Season.
Should this occur during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, it would potentially mean that ENSO conditions would be favorable for yet another active season.